Ginsler Wealth First Quarter 2025 Client Letter – Warren Buffett Edition

(An audio version of this letter can now be found as Episode 53 of The Unlimited Podcast by Ginsler Wealth. Use the link provided or find us on your favourite podcast app: Apple Podcasts / Spotify)

 

To Ginsler Wealth’s Clients:

While I am still not sure how I got into Harvard Business School back in 2001, once on campus I was constantly amazed by the caliber of speakers the school could attract. But at HBS, no visiting speaker generated more excitement than the Greatest Investor in the World – Warren Buffett. HBS’s auditorium – Burden Hall – would be packed to the rafters to hear Buffett’s sage advice. I had the great fortune of hearing and seeing Buffett twice during my two years at HBS. And Warren was even nice enough to take a picture with me. I note that almost 25 years later, Buffett looks about the same while I certainly don’t have the same head of hair I did back then!

I have been following Buffett’s musings since leaving HBS. Each year, Buffett pens his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. And for the past many years, I have written a standalone Ginsler Wealth commentary on each of Warren’s letters (see 2023, 2022, and 2021).

Buffett’s latest letter was released on February 22, amid one of the most volatile and uncertain calendar quarters, perhaps in history; and I am writing this letter after the first week of April with Trump’s Tariffs roiling global markets. As usual, Buffett’s letter contains some very important themes and lessons. As such, I thought I’d connect The Oracle of Omaha’s latest insights to today’s investing environment—and how we’re applying them in managing your portfolios at Ginsler Wealth. Buffett’s quotes will be in bold italics throughout.

For context – which I suspect you are all aware of – Trump’s actions (primarily) drove the U.S. stock market[i] to a negative 4.6% return through to the end of March 31, 2025 (and dramatically lower than that in the first week of April). World equity markets, generally, have all turned negative for the year-to-date as well.

 

REMAIN INVESTED & DON’T TIME THE MARKETS

The most common question I’ve been asked in recent months is how to navigate the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs and other unpredictable developments. This is often followed by the acknowledgment that no one can reliably forecast what’s coming next—particularly since it’s unclear whether even Trump knows what he’ll declare from one day to the next.

“Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities. That preference won’t change. Berkshire will never prefer ownership of cash-equivalent assets over the ownership of good businesses,…”

“Businesses, as well as individuals with desired talents…will usually find a way to cope with … instability…”

Buffett reminds us that staying invested will, in hindsight, likely be seen as the wisest course of action. We have written often about “doing nothing” and “doing something”, including combining the two ideas in my February 2nd Note to Clients re Trump Tariffs. As my former boss, Gerald Sheff, Co-Founder of pre-eminent wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., reminded our listeners on the latest episode of The Unlimited Podcast, “Doing nothing is often the best thing to do. Because if you do something, you have to do it right twice.”

And in line with Buffett’s comments, our general approach to investing does not involve “going to cash” when uncertainty or volatility rises. Instead, we aim to construct portfolios that are built to better withstand market swings than traditional equity and bond portfolios (more on this below).

“Greg [Abel][ii] and I have no view on future foreign exchange rates…”

It is also important to remind you that Buffett consistently emphasizes that he and his team have little ability to predict what will happen in the economy and markets. Instead, they focus on making sound decisions without relying on a crystal ball. We do the same at Ginsler Wealth.

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF DIVERSIFICATION AND BUILDING THE ALLWEATHER PORTFOLIO

“In 2024, Berkshire did better than I expected though 53% of  our 189 operating businesses reported a decline in earnings.”

We have described our portfolio construction approach many times, and in my 2022 Year End Letter, I called this portfolio the “All-Weather” portfolio – a portfolio that can provide a reasonable level of downside protection, some income along the way, and the opportunity for growth and gains.

A typical “diversified” investment portfolio (outside Ginsler Wealth) is sometimes called the “60/40 Portfolio” (i.e., 60% stocks and 40% bonds). As you know, at Ginsler Wealth we have augmented that so-called diversified portfolio to include other asset classses (alternatives and real estate, most commonly), and include a variety of sub-strategies within each asset class.

As Buffett explains in his quote above, even with more than half of Berkshire’s businesses experiencing a decline in earnings, Berkshire’s diversified “portfolio” of businesses did well overall.

Breaking down the “Ginsler Wealth” pie chart above, the high-level results of the strategies in each asset class over the first quarter of 2025 were as follows:

Given the unique circumstances, goals, and objectives of each client family, it’s challenging to provide a personalized performance summary in a general letter like this. However, one key takeaway applies broadly: the importance of diversification only grows as market volatility and uncertainty increase.

“A small but important exception to our U.S.-based focus is our growing investment in Japan.”

Buffett details in his recent letter about Berkshire’s investments outside the U.S. In my last quarterly letter, I described one of our key moves going into 2025: decreasing U.S. equity exposure and increasing International/Emerging Markets exposure. As per the table above, (so far) that has been a good decision, and we believe maintaining this international exposure enhances the overlal diversification of portfolios.

 

THE COST OF DIVERSIFICATION IS WORTH IT

“Berkshire Hathaway – paid far more in corporate income tax than the U.S. government had ever received from any company – even the American tech titans that commanded market values in the trillions.

A theme of Buffett’s last few letters has been the amount of taxes Berkshire proudly pays each year. Why? Because paying taxes means they’re making a lot of money.

At Ginsler Wealth, part of our role is to help you minimize taxes through thoughtful financial and tax planning, as well as by designing tax-efficient portfolios (I discussed this in my 2024 Q1 letter – Free Money Edition). But that doesn’t mean avoiding taxes at all costs.

At a high level, equities tend to be among the most tax-efficient investments because you typically only pay taxes when (if) you sell them at a gain—often many years down the road—and only half of that gain is taxable. But unfortunately, this tax advantage doesn’t come cheap. The “cost” is market uncertainty, volatility, sharp swings, sleepless nights, and maybe even a touch of nausea, which I suspect many investors felt last week.

As one tries to reduce those unpleasant side effects by holding more stable and consistent investments (some of which I highlighted in the pie charts and table above), the trade-off is often reduced tax efficiency—meaning you may pay a higher tax rate per unit of return. However, like Buffett, we believe this “cost” in the form of taxes is well worth it over the long run—especially during periods of market distress like we’re experiencing today.

 

 REMINDER: INVESTING REQUIRES A LONG TIME HORIZON

“Our measure [of operating earnings] excludes capital gains or losses on the stocks and bonds we own, whether realized or unrealized. Over time, we think it highly likely that gains will prevail, though the year-by-year numbers will swing wildly and unpredictably.”

“Our horizon for such commitments is almost always far longer than a single year. In many, our thinking involves decades.”

Everyone knows that investing requires a long time horizon. But in our experience, many investors have a long time horizon…until they get spooked. And there is always something to worry about. As Buffett says, year-by-year swings will be wild and unpredictable. But the chart below – which I call “Climbing the ‘Wall of Worry’” – shows a reasonably predictable long-term pattern.

 

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS (AGAIN?)

“…really outstanding businesses are very seldom offered in their entirety, but small fractions of these gems can be purchased Monday through Friday on Wall Street and, very occasionally, they sell at bargain prices.”

A few years ago, in the third quarter of 2022, after a brutal nine-month stretch, the U.S. equity market was down 25% for the year, and the Canadian market was down 13%. Fixed income markets—the “bonds” in the traditional “60/40 Portfolio” mentioned earlier—were also down significantly. At that point, the 60/40 Portfolio didn’t feel all that diversified. I released my “Opportunity Knocks”-themed quarterly letter on October 9, 2022. I encourage you to revisit it for a look at past market declines and the strong recoveries that often followed. As the chart below shows, just three days later, the U.S. equity market[vi] bottomed out—and went on to gain 78% to its recent high in mid-February, almost 63% through the end of March, and 47% as of April 4, 2025 (even after recent steep declines).

In other words, periods of significant market declines have historically been some of the best—and most opportunistic—times to invest. But please don’t assume the market will bottom three days from now. Remember…I don’t have a crystal ball.


WARREN BUFFETT COLES NOTES (OR TL;DR, FOR THE YOUNG FOLKS…)

  1. Stay invested. Don’t try to time the markets or predict the future. Do nothing, sometimes.
  2. Diversification works. True diversification proves its value when you need it most (like now).
  3. Paying taxes is okay. It means you’re making money. Don’t let tax concerns override sound investment decisions.
  4. Think long term. Successful investing requires patience. Markets tend to climb the “Wall of Worry.”
  5. Find opportunity in fear. As Buffett famously said: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

—————–

ME AND BUFFETT ARE ALIKE

“During the 2019-23 period, I have used the words ‘mistake’ or ‘error’ 16 times in my letters to you. Many other huge companies have never used either word…”.

Probably the only thing Warren Buffett and I have in common, aside from our love of Coca-Cola and McDonalds, is that we both make mistakes. In fact, I am probably better than Buffett at making mistakes.

“Greg, our directors and I all have a very large investment in Berkshire in relation to any compensation we receive. If you lose money, so do we. This approach encourages caution but does not ensure foresight.”

But also like Buffett, me and my family are invested in the same holdings and strategies we recommend for our clients. So, when it comes to managing your portfolios, both I and the Ginsler Wealth team think and act with great care. Yes, we will make mistakes from time to time. But we do well when you do well, and vice versa. You can trust that we are fully focused on navigating today’s uncertainty—guided, in part, by the timeless wisdom of the Oracle of Omaha.

 

Thank you for your continued trust, support and confidence. We are available 24/7 should you need us.

Sincerely,

Brian singnature

Brian Ginsler
President & CEO

 

 

 

—————–

[i] S&P 500 Index as a proxy for the U.S. stock market.

[ii] Greg Abel, from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, was confirmed by Warren Buffett to be his successor as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

[iii] The Ginsler Wealth portfolio shown here is simply an illustration and is not meant to be representative of each client’s portfolio with Ginsler Wealth. Every client has different risk tolerances, goals, objectives, time horizons, etc. and each portfolio at Ginsler Wealth is tailored for each individual client’s circumstances.

[iv] The strategies mentioned are the “core” strategies held in most/many client portfolios and exclude specialized or very lightly-allocated strategies that are used sparingly for particular client situations, especially those with higher risk tolerances. It also excludes “cash management” types of strategies and holdings, which were all positive, as one would expect. However, it is important to note that the experience detailed herein may not be in line with individual client-specific results. See endnote iii above for client-specific disclaimers.

[v] Source: Haverford, Ibbotson Associates and taken from the following website: https://www.pwafinancial.com/blog-01/wall-worry. The S&P 500 is a broad representative index of large capitalization U.S. stocks. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Panics of 1837, 1857, 1873, 1896 & 1907 were periods of financial crisis and extreme market volatility that resulted in deep economic downturns.

[vi] The S&P 500 Total Return Index.

Note to Clients re Trump Tariffs – February 2024

To Ginsler Wealth’s Clients:

You are no doubt paying close attention to the Trump Tariffs that will be levied on Canada, Mexico and China in a few days – and the resulting impacts to the Canadian and U.S. economies, and (North American) financial markets in general.

It is fortuitous that my two most recent quarterly letters were written precisely to address situations just like this:

In October of last year, in my 2024 Third Quarter Letter, I wrote about the importance of “doing nothing” in the face of a market shock event, if you are confident that you have already taken appropriate steps to build portfolios that are diversified across numerous asset classes and strategies; portfolios that have inherent downside protection built in. I remain confident that we have done this, and as such won’t be taking any rash or dramatic actions this coming week.

And just a few weeks ago, in my 2024 Fourth Quarter Letter, I wrote about some of the actions (“doing something”) we have taken and continue to take based on what we have been observing in U.S. and international markets. This included further diversifying portfolios into non-U.S. markets and increasing allocations to income-oriented investments. More recently, in 2025 so far, we have begun shifting some equity allocations to more value-oriented U.S. and Canadian strategies, and have taken steps to further reduce risk in client portfolios.*

On the first page of our website, there is a quote that reads: “We don’t rest, so you can.”

Rest assured – we are watching very closely and thinking very carefully about the best actions to take – or not – to prudently care for your portfolios.

Thanks as always for your trust, support and confidence. We are available 24/7 should you need us.

Sincerely,

Brian singnature

Brian Ginsler
President & CEO

*As always, please recall that all clients have different goals, objectives and risk tolerances, which means that some or all of the actions and investments detailed above may not be suitable for your own specific circumstances.

[Picture generated by ChatGPT]

Uncertainty to Opportunity with David Rosenberg on The Unlimited Podcast

For the 50th episode of The Unlimited Podcast, we welcome back David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research. David founded Rosenberg Research in January 2020 after an illustrious, three-decade career on Wall Street and Bay Street as an economist and market strategist.

With the start of 2025 and Trump’s recent inauguration, Brian seeks to uncover David’s best views and thoughts on the markets, the economy, Trump’s proposed tariffs, and the like. In other words, what should investors be thinking and doing in 2025? This is a “must-listen” episode for anyone seeking opportunity amid uncertainty!

A video of the entire interview is accessible below:

This episode can also be found here or find us in your favourite podcasting app, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Amazon Music.

If you like what you hear, please don’t hesitate to rate us kindly. And if there are particular topics you’d like covered, please let us know.

Ginsler Wealth Fourth Quarter 2024 Client Letter – Nature Calls (a.k.a. Do Something) Edition

(An audio version of this letter can now be found as Episode 49 of The Unlimited Podcast by Ginsler Wealth. Use the link provided or find us on your favourite podcast app.)

PRELUDE:

In my last quarterly letter I discussed the benefits of “doing nothing” (sometimes) as it relates to investing, but suggested that in my next quarterly letter I would discuss the benefits of “doing something”. So here we go…


To Ginsler Wealth’s Clients:

I returned to Algonquin Park in the Fall (following the trip with my wife that I wrote about last quarter)—my regular annual trip with my buddies. Avid readers of these letters (are there any?) would know that we prefer this time of year to others, even though the weather can be a bit unpredictable. Unlike the past few years, this October in Algonquin Park was warm and sunny – although it definitely cooled down during the nights.

At 2am on our last night, I woke up in the tent and nature was calling. When this happens, the goal is typically to jump out of the tent, do what has to be done, and jump right back in quickly. But while I was outside the tent, I noticed that the pitch darkness of bedtime had turned into a bright moonlit night; the temperature was mild; and I did not hear any bears rustling in the woods (phew). Instead of jumping back into the tent quickly…nature actually was calling…so I decided to do something.

I took a camping chair and walked down to the lake and sat there for a while, enjoying the moonlit lake, the solitude and the peace. It was beautiful.

Don’t tell my campmates, but it was the best part of the whole trip for me. All because I decided to do something.

 

WHAT TO DO NOW?

The last few years have been a boon for equity investors. After a brutal 2022, equity markets, seemingly always now led by the Magnificent Seven, roared ahead in both 2023 and 2024. Trump’s recent victory has continued to propel U.S. “risk” assets higher, as well as Bitcoin, which has soared almost 47% since the day before the U.S. Election (Nov 4)[i]. While there are always many reasons why this equity run and risk assets should fall, we wouldn’t bet against Trump’s ability to boost the U.S. markets and economy, which is clearly his stated goal.

At the same time, central banks – in particular in Canada – have been lowering interest rates after raising them dramatically in 2022 and the first half of 2023.

All the above has led to developed markets (especially the U.S.) valuations reaching all-time highs. For example, the chart below shows that the current S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is 41% higher than its 30-year average.

S&P 500 Index: Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio[ii]

This is especially true when viewed against international and emerging market valuations. For example, the chart to the right shows that the current “international” price-to-earnings ratio is at a 38% discount to the U.S. (S&P 500)—near historic lows and more than two standard deviations below the average.

International: Price-to-Earnings Discount vs. U.S. [iii]
MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. vs. S&P 500, next 12 months

The above has also led to falling income yields on interest sensitive assets, which has especially impacted our ability to find new structured notes[iv] at attractive income levels.

So in the latter half of 2024 (and continuing into 2025) we decided to “do something”.


LOOK ABROAD

Over the past quarter, after many months of due diligence, we have made small allocations[v] to an emerging markets equity fund. Our rationale for doing so is as follows:

|        Emerging markets are large and significant – representing 60% of global GDP.[vi]

|        Emerging markets are growing – growing at >2x developed economies.[vii]

|        Emerging markets are an opportunity for investors – with forecasted earnings per share growth of 4x developed markets going forward[viii], valuations relative to the U.S. at 50-year lows (see chart below), and of course, diversification benefits.

Emerging Markets Equities vs. U.S. Equities[ix]
Relative Price (USD terms)

While emerging markets investing can be more volatile or risky, the particular fund chosen mitigates some of these risks by pursuing a value investment approach and generally overweights the utilities and infrastructure sectors in the fund, providing more stability of cash flows, a regulatory framework, and higher dividend yields (see the section below on income). It also generally underweights technology and financial services investments, which carry higher volatility and valuations in the former, and higher leverage in the latter.

To learn more about emerging market equities, you can listen to Episode 46 of The Unlimited Podcast featuring my interview with Rohit Khuller, Lead Portfolio Manager of the Emerging Markets Equity fund at Letko Brosseau in Montreal.

As we enter 2025, we are continuing our work to identify other international equity opportunities to round out our equity offerings in client portfolios.


THE SEARCH FOR INCOME

On the “income” side, during 2024 we introduced a new multi-family real estate fund to our lineup, which in addition to historically strong growth from operations, pays a 5% distribution that comes in the form of “return of capital” – meaning it is not taxable when received[x]. This is equivalent to earning >10% on a regular income-generating investment (for investors in the highest tax bracket).

As a side note, during our due diligence on the above fund, we highlighted concerns regarding their redemption terms and respectfully conveyed that we could not proceed with an investment unless adjustments were made. We were very pleased that this multi-billion-dollar fund acknowledged our feedback and agreed to modify its terms to address our concerns – for the benefit of not just Ginsler Wealth clients, but also all other investors.[xi]

Most recently, during the past quarter, we added an Options Income strategy (in the Alternative asset class), which aims to generate a high yield—currently around 11%. This yield has also (historically) been highly tax efficient, with distributions often treated as a mixture of capital gains and return of capital, rather than more highly-taxed interest or dividend income.[xii]

This has also been accompanied by increasing allocations to Canadian-dividend-oriented equity strategies throughout the middle and latter half of 2024 – which have received renewed interest (no pun intended) as interest rates have been lowered.

Speaking of dividends and emerging markets, as mentioned in the section above, international equities are currently offering a dividend yield more than 2x higher than U.S. equities (see chart to the right), with the emerging markets strategy we use offering a current dividend yield almost 3x higher.

International: Difference in Dividend Yields vs. U.S.[xiii]
MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. minus S&P 500, next 12 months

We continue to seek attractive, tax-efficient income-oriented strategies for our clients.

 

WHAT WE’RE DOING AT GINSLER WEALTH

We are also doing something(s) at Ginsler Wealth: This past year has been one of growth. This has been especially true for larger clients taking advantage of our full “family office”, or “Personal CFO” services. As a result, during this past quarter, we welcomed two new investment professionals to our investment team who collectively hold two Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designations, one Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation, one Masters of Finance degree and one Licensed Portfolio Manager registration.

Among other things, we are also busy working on more robust Ginsler Wealth reporting, and a new client portal and mobile app. Stay tuned for invites rolling out over the course of the next few months.

—————–

Wishing everyone a Happy New Year. I hope you had a chance to do nothing over the holidays; and I hope the New Year brings us all the opportunity to do something great in 2025. We’re certainly working on it!

Thank you for your continued trust, support and confidence. We are available 24/7 should you need us.

Sincerely,

Brian singnature

Brian Ginsler
President & CEO

 

 

 

 

—————–

[i] On November 4, 2024, Yahoo! Finance shows a Bitcoin “closing” price of $69,359.56 USD (even though there is no “closing” price of Bitcoin since it trades 24/7). On January 6, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at a price of $101,904 USD.

[ii] FactSet, FRB, Refinitiv Datastream, Robert Shiller, Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price-to-earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months as provided by IBES since March 1994 and by FactSet since January 2022. Average P/E and standard deviations are calculated using 30 years of history. Shiller’s P/E uses trailing 10-years of inflation-adjusted earnings as reported by companies. Dividend yield is calculated as the next 12-months consensus dividend divided by most recent price. Price-to-book ratio is the price divided by book value per share. Price-to-cash flow is price divided by NTM cash flow. EY minus Baa yield is the forward earnings yield (consensus analyst estimates of EPS over the next 12 months divided by price) minus the Bloomberg US corporate Baa yield since December 2008 and interpolated using the Moody’s Baa seasoned corporate bond yield for values beforehand. Std. dev. over-/under-valued is calculated using the average and standard deviation over 30 years for each measure. *Averages and standard deviations for dividend yield and P/CF are since November 1995 due to data availability. J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2024.

[iii] FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2024.

[iv] To get a refresher on structured notes, you can read Ginsler Wealth’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Client Letter – The Coby Edition.

[v] Where appropriate based on each specific client’s goals, objectives and risk tolerance.

[vi] IMF as of October 2024. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC

[vii] IMF as of October 2024. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

[viii] Bloomberg: 2023-2025 total earnings per share growth estimates of the MXWO (MSCI World) and MXEF (MSCI EM) index. Provided by Letko Brosseau. 2024.

[ix] Bank of America Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg, Global Financial Data. Bank of America Global Research. The Flow Show. Catch Me If You Can. November 30, 2023.

[x] A return of capital (ROC) occurs when an investor receives a portion of their original investment back, rather than income or profit. From a tax perspective, ROC is typically not taxable when received but reduces the investor’s cost basis in the investment, meaning at the time of selling the investment, the ultimate taxable capital gain will be higher. If the cost basis is reduced to zero, further ROC distributions may be taxed as capital gains.

[xi] For investors purchasing the same class of units as Ginsler Wealth clients.

[xii] Over the past 5 calendar years, the mix has averaged 59% return of capital, 36% capital gains, and 5% interest/dividends – source is direct from the fund company. Contact GW for further details.

[xiii] FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of November 31, 2024.

Wealth Innovations with Som Seif on The Unlimited Podcast

On this episode of The Unlimited Podcast, Brian welcomes Som Seif, a trailblazer in the Canadian wealth management space and the founder of Purpose Unlimited. Som’s career is marked by a series of innovative milestones, from launching one of Canada’s first ETF companies, to co-founding Wealthsimple, to creating the world’s first Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Som shares his insights into the evolving wealth and investment management landscape, highlighting the importance of aligning investment strategies with personal values and financial goals (sounds familiar to us here at Ginsler Wealth!). In addition, Som reveals the lessons learned from his business and entrepreneurial experiences, his vision for the future of financial services, and his best advice for success.

Som Seif is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Purpose Unlimited, which he formed following the sale of Claymore Investments to BlackRock Inc. in March 2012 and the Co-Founder of WealthSimple Technologies Inc. Prior to Claymore Investments, Som was an investment banker with RBC Capital Markets. He has a strong commitment to community and is currently Co-Chair of the UofT Defy Gravity Campaign, a member of the AGO Foundation Board, and Next Canada Board.

This episode can be found here or find us in your favourite podcasting app, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Amazon Music.

If you like what you hear, please don’t hesitate to rate us kindly. And if there are particular topics you’d like covered, please let us know.

Emerging Market Investing with Rohit Khuller on The Unlimited Podcast

Most Canadian investors focus on developed markets, mainly in the U.S., Canada, and parts of Europe. However, there’s a world of untapped potential in select emerging markets—regions that drive a substantial portion of global GDP. While these markets carry a unique blend of risks, they also offer powerful growth opportunities that investors shouldn’t overlook.

On this episode of The Unlimited Podcast, Brian explores the world of emerging markets investing with Rohit Khuller, Partner and VP of Investment Management at Letko Brosseau & Associates Inc. As the Lead Portfolio Manager of the firm’s Emerging Markets Equity portfolio, Rohit breaks down what defines emerging markets, highlights the investment opportunities they offer, and shares examples of some of the fund’s top holdings.

Rohit Khuller is Vice President & Partner at Letko Brosseau & Associates, an independent investment manager, managing approx. $18 billion in assets, with offices in Montreal, Toronto and Calgary. In addition to his role as Portfolio Manager, he is a member of the firm’s Investment Council, overseeing portfolio strategy and risk management for all of the company’s assets, and he is the lead portfolio manager responsible for the firm’s emerging markets equity investments. Prior to joining Letko Brosseau, Mr. Khuller’s career in various industries such as automotive, aerospace and banking in several countries enabled him to deepen his knowledge in different fields. Rohit has successfully completed the General Management Program (GMP) from Harvard Business School, has an MBA from McGill, a bachelor’s in engineering from Delhi College (B. Eng), and is a CFA charterholder.

This episode can be found here or find us in your favourite podcasting app, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Amazon Music.

If you like what you hear, please don’t hesitate to rate us kindly. And if there are particular topics you’d like covered, please let us know.

Ginsler Wealth Third Quarter 2024 Client Letter – Do Nothing Edition

(An audio version of this letter can now be found as Episode 45 of The Unlimited Podcast by Ginsler Wealth. Use the link provided or find us on your favourite podcast app.)

To Ginsler Wealth’s Clients:

This past August, in the middle of this past calendar quarter, equity markets around the world experienced significant declines. This was particularly evident in the U.S., driven by several of the Magnificent Seven[i]. Contributing factors included a slowing economy, job creation not meeting expectations, Buffett selling half of his favourite stock (Apple), and companies investing billions in NVIDIA processors and chips not seeing the anticipated returns.

Coincidentally, I chose the August long weekend to visit a resort in my favourite place on earth, Algonquin Park, where there is no cell reception.

Or so I thought.

In the very early hours of Monday (August 4) morning, a faint, single bar of service must have magically appeared, and a few errant texts slipped through, along with a single Wall Street Journal news alert notification…

“Oh shoot,” I said to my wife. “Japan’s stock index fell 12.4% last night!” (Full disclosure: I didn’t actually use the word “shoot”).

Despite my excitement about being disconnected for a few days, I felt this news warranted driving out of the resort until we found reliable cell reception. We were like characters from the movie Twister, but instead of chasing tornadoes, we were chasing cellular service.

When I saw two bars of reception on my screen, we pulled the car over to the side of the dirt road, and I quickly caught up on what was happening in the world and markets.

It wasn’t pretty.

 

DO SOMETHING!?!

During those ugly days in early August, the Japanese stock market was actually down about 25% from its July high and the U.S. stock market was down about 8.5% from its July high. See chart below…

With 2022 now far behind us, investors may have forgotten what it feels like to have a big down day (or a few days). This is normal for equity markets. For investors, this is the required cost of striving for solid long-term returns. But history has shown that the “Average Investor” often reacts impulsively or out of fear when markets suddenly decline—with a feeling that they must do something. As the table below shows, historically, this has resulted in the Average Investor significantly underperforming relative to almost any relevant asset class or benchmark. While the data below is a few years old, I am confident its conclusion has not changed materially in the last few years.

So what happened following August’s sudden declines? As is often the case, the markets’ steepest declines are quickly followed by steep increases (as you can see in the chart below). By the last day of the quarter, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high, and Japan’s Nikkei index had recovered much of its decline.

When viewed on a longer-term basis, these market blips become irrelevant (see chart below); but in the moment can feel like they are the beginning of the end! Over the past ten years we have experienced numerous events that have shaken the markets. Here are ten big ones as summarized by ChatGPT:

  1. 2014 Oil Price Crash: A sharp decline in oil prices, beginning in mid-2014, impacted global markets, particularly energy stocks and economies reliant on oil exports.
  2. 2015-2016 Chinese Stock Market Turbulence: A selloff in Chinese equities and a devaluation of China’s currency led to global market volatility and declines.
  3. Brexit Referendum, 2016: The United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union on June 23, 2016, caused immediate market uncertainty and declines, particularly in European stocks and the British pound.
  4. 2018 Trade Tensions: Ongoing trade disputes, especially between the United States and China, led to market volatility and corrections throughout the year.
  5. COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020: The onset of the coronavirus pandemic led to one of the most severe market crashes in history, culminating in significant declines in March 2020 as global economies went into lockdown.
  6. 2020 U.S. Election Uncertainty: The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election results and associated political tensions contributed to market turbulence in late 2020.
  7. Supply Chain Disruptions, 2021: Global supply chain issues, exacerbated by the pandemic, led to inflation concerns and subsequent market volatility.
  8. Ukraine-Russia Conflict, 2022: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 resulted in geopolitical instability, rising energy prices, and global economic uncertainty, affecting global markets.
  9. 2022 Inflation and Interest Rate Hikes: Rising inflation rates and subsequent aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, led to market corrections and increased volatility throughout the year.
  10. Banking Sector Concerns, 2023: Issues within the banking sector, including the collapse of several regional banks, triggered market declines and fears of financial instability.

Interestingly, ChatGPT neglected to include the horrific events that occurred one year ago on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent unbelievable events that continue to this day. I feel it is important to acknowledge this sad anniversary. I continue to pray for the return of innocent hostages taken into Gaza, for peace in the Middle East, and for an end to the abhorrent antisemitism we have seen all over the world.

The events above, along with countless others, profoundly influenced global stock markets, each causing varying levels of uncertainty, fear, and shifts in investor sentiment. And yet, simply holding the S&P 500 index through those last ten years of market blips, would have generated an approximate annualized 11% price return (or 13% total return, when including dividends).

On the topic of doing nothing, the latest episode of The Unlimited Podcast featured award winning author and my first finance professor at Ivey Business School, Stephen Foerster. We discussed his latest book, Trailblazers, Heroes, & Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor. Professor Foerster specifically recounts a few stories of trailblazers and heroes who were masters of the art of doing nothing – or as Steve labels it: Masterly Inactivity. Rather than repeat those stories here, I encourage you to listen to the episode if you haven’t already.

 

SO WHAT DID I DO? (TAKE A GUESS…)

Back to the side of the road…

With my pulse initially racing, my mind worked quickly to calculate what my next moves should be:

  • Are our client portfolios overly exposed to the “Mag 7”? No.
  • Are our client portfolios sufficiently diversified to handle an equity market pullback? Yes.
  • In our actively managed equity and hedge strategies, will the underlying managers take steps to maximize opportunity or minimize loss? Yes.
  • With a long-term lens, did that morning’s market action change anything we have implemented in client portfolios? No.

I very quickly concluded that the best course of action was to do nothing.

Having done the necessary work in advance, and knowing that we had carefully and diligently constructed our clients’ portfolios to handle market volatility[iii], the only thing left for my wife and me to do was to turn around, drive back to the lake, and hit the water…where things were much calmer…

—————–

All that being said, there’s actually a lot of activity – investment and other – going on at Ginsler Wealth, and I look forward to sharing it with you in next quarter’s letter. Maybe I’ll call it the “Do Something Edition”.

Thank you for your trust, support, and confidence. We are available 24/7 should you need us.

Sincerely,

Brian singnature

Brian Ginsler
President & CEO

 

 

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[i] The term “Magnificent Seven” in the context of the stock market refers to the seven leading technology or tech-related companies in the United States, known for their significant impact on the market due to their large market capitalizations and influence. The Magnificent Seven typically includes: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META): formerly Facebook, and Tesla (TSLA). These companies are noted for driving substantial market trends and innovation, often serving as a barometer for the technology sector and broader stock market performance.

[ii] Source: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets 2021-03-31. Average asset allocation investor return is based on an analysis by Dalbar Inc., which utilizes the net of aggregate mutual fund sales, redemptions and exchanges each month as a measure of investor behavior. Returns are annualized (and total return where applicable) and represent the
20-year period ending 2019-12-31 to match Dalbar’s most recent analysis.

[iii] As always, each client’s portfolio is constructed for their particular needs, goals, and objectives, and as such, may react differently under varying market conditions.

Trailblazers, Heroes, & Crooks with Stephen Foerster on The Unlimited Podcast

During his first year at Ivey Business School, Brian’s career plan changed significantly after taking an Introduction to Finance & Investing course. The insights gained from that class inspired him to pivot from a career in accounting to a focus on finance and investing.

Twenty-five years later, Brian reconnects with Stephen Foerster, the professor who sparked his interest in finance, to discuss Foerster’s latest book: “Trailblazers, Heroes, & Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor”.

Brian and Steve discuss trailblazers Quintus Fabius and Muhammad Ali; heroes Warren Buffett and Harry Markopolos; and crooks Bernie Madoff, Sam Bankman-Fried and Tino DeAngelis; among others. You don’t want to miss these stories, which could make you a smarter investor.

Stephen Foerster is an award-winning author and Professor of Finance at Ivey Business School, where he has taught since 1987. He received a BA (Honors Business Administration) from Western University, and an MA and PhD from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He obtained the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation in 1997 and has taught Financial Management, Investments, and Portfolio Management courses in the HBA, MBA, and Executive MBA Programs. He has won numerous teaching and research awards.

Foerster has also written two textbooks and over 100 case studies and technical notes in the areas of investments and financial management. He has published over 50 articles including in the Journal of Financial Economics, the Journal of Finance and Financial Analysts Journal. Foerster has served on pension and endowment fund boards as well as not-for-profit investment committees.

This episode can be found here or find us in your favourite podcasting app, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Amazon Music.

If you like what you hear, please don’t hesitate to rate us kindly. And if there are particular topics you’d like covered, please let us know.

Ginsler Wealth Second Quarter 2024 Client Letter – Financial Literacy Edition

(An audio version of this letter can now be found as Episode 41 of The Unlimited Podcast by Ginsler Wealth. Use the link provided or find us on your favourite podcast app.)

To Ginsler Wealth’s Clients:

A few weeks ago, I experienced what all financial advisor parents dream of. I came home to find my youngest daughter’s Grade 8 Financial Literacy test on the dining room table. She had earned a mark of 95%. I couldn’t have been more proud, and thought about ordering Ginsler Wealth business cards for her right away!

But I might have gotten ahead of myself…

Later that day, my wife and kids were going to Walmart to pick up a few things they needed. Recalling the financial literacy test topic of “needs vs. wants” (see above), I reminded Penny that while she is shopping to truly focus on buying what she needs rather than everything she wants when she is there.

Penny looked at me stone-faced and said: “I need what I want.”

I guess I won’t be ordering those business cards just yet.

 

THE STOCK EVERYBODY WANTS

As we hit the mid-year mark of 2024, the U.S. stock market – as represented by the S&P 500 Total Return Index – has continued its positive run, up just over 15%. This is a fantastic 6-month return, more than a typical investor would need to prudently grow their wealth. (To be clear, this is a simplified example, as you know your Ginsler Wealth portfolios are far more diversified than having exposure to a single stock market.) Our Canadian equity market – as represented by the S&P/TSX 60 Total Return Index – has returned a fine, but relatively underwhelming, 4.9% so far this year.

However, the stock everyone wants is Nvidia, which is up over 150% in 2024 and which briefly became the most valuable company in the world with a market value above $3 trillion. In fact, it is important to note that Nvidia alone is responsible for approximately 30% of the S&P 500’s gain so far this year.[i]


Nvidia is a fantastic company that is powering the current artificial intelligence revolution. Most of our clients will have exposure to Nvidia through the broad market equity holdings in your portfolios.[ii] But we always caution investors against having too much exposure to a single equity, or any investment for that matter.

 

NEEDS-BASED FINANCIAL AND INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

This is because our role as your financial and investment advisor is to approach the management of your wealth from the lens of “needs” as opposed to “wants”.

Our clients do not need 150% 6-month returns, nor do they want the corresponding risk that comes from striving for that level of return. In fact, most of our largest families ignore individual stock or stock market performance and focus instead on the performance of their diversified portfolios, which target steady growth—at a rate meaningful to their specific circumstances and needs. This is because they understand that meaningful wealth is typically created by operating and growing businesses or professions they control, rather than by picking the day’s hottest stock. And staying wealthy happens through prudent investing, and prudent management of their financial and tax affairs.

 

SCHOOL’S OUT FOR SUMMER

When you try your best, but you don’t succeed
When you get what you want, but not what you need

—Coldplay, Fix You

Speaking of tax affairs, the Coldplay lyrics above sum up our current Liberal government’s approach to fiscal management, the prime example being the recent increase to the capital gains inclusion rate.

As you know, we spent a significant amount of time this past quarter reviewing these changes and taking action in your portfolios with the goal of reducing the overall tax liabilities that these changes could create. (Listen to The Unlimited Podcast episode Federal Budget Breakdown featuring tax expert Ali Spinner, to get a refresher on what changed.)

While the government wants the wealthiest Canadians to pay “just a bit more” (as it did in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2023)[iii], what it actually needs are taxation and other policies to encourage investment and productivity. No less an authority than Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said just last week, “figuring out how to make Canada a better place to invest is critical…”. Increasing taxes on the fruits borne from investment surely won’t accomplish this. While school is now out for summer, perhaps our country’s leaders could brush up on their financial literacy education as well.

 

WHAT GINSLER WEALTH NEEDS

This past quarter Ginsler Wealth was pleased to be named by Wealth Professional, a publisher focused on the Canadian wealth management industry, as an Excellence Awardee in the category of Holistic Advisory Team of the Year and a 5-Star Wealth Management Firm – a listing of some of the best wealth management firms in Canada.

   

Most firms want industry accolades, but we prioritize your satisfaction above all. At Ginsler Wealth, our main focus is ensuring you are happy with the service we provide. While industry recognition is nice, our greatest need is knowing that we’ve done a great job for you.

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Have a wonderful summer. We hope you get to enjoy both what you need and what you want.

Thank you for your trust, support, and confidence. We are available 24/7 should you need us.

Sincerely,

Brian singnature

Brian Ginsler
President & CEO

 

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[i] https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/ai-frenzy-propels-stocks-to-monster-first-half-620229cc?st=i80f4h4e79q2onh&reflink=article_email_share

[ii] For the balance of this letter, please recall that our clients have different investment goals, objectives, and risk tolerances, and therefore will have different portfolios, which may not include some of the strategies or securities detailed herein.

[iii] Years determined with the help of Perplexity AI, which scanned 15 sources to compile the applicable years, and with the help of OpenAI ChatGPT 4o, which conducted a similar operation. Sources included: Grant Thorton LLP Canada, The Fraser Institute, The Canadian Press, Reuters, The Financial Post, Canadian Taxpayers Federation, Reuters, CBC, CTV News, The Associated Press, Wealth Professional, The Liberal Party of Canada, among others.

 

Asset-Based Lending with Marius Silvasan on The Unlimited Podcast

Private debt is “all the rage” these days, but also beset with some controversy, especially in Canada. Asset-based lending is a form of private debt, and eCapital is a leader in this space. On this episode of The Unlimited Podcast, Marius Silvasan, CEO of eCapital, goes “back to basics” to explain what asset-based lending is, how eCapital mitigates risks typically associated with traditional private debt, and reveals eCapital’s secret weapon: its technology focus.

eCapital is a specialty finance company with a focus on providing working capital to small and medium sized businesses in the U.S., U.K., and Canada. eCapital finances 6,000+ clients through factoring and asset-based lending facilities and provides ancillary services such as credit cards, fuel cards, bill pay and other treasury services. The business was founded in 2006 and employs 700+ people globally.

Prior to his leadership role with eCapital, Marius was CEO and Director of ONE Bio Corp and Tele Plus World Corp, accumulating over 20 years of experience in structured finance, syndication and mergers and acquisitions. As a Forbes Finance Council Member, he is an emerging thought leader on financial services and corporate leadership. He holds a Bachelor of Business Administration and a Master of Business Administration from HEC University in Montreal.

This episode can be found here or find us in your favourite podcasting app, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and Amazon Music.

If you like what you hear, please don’t hesitate to rate us kindly. And if there are particular topics you’d like covered, please let us know.