(An audio version of this letter can now be found as Episode 49 of The Unlimited Podcast by Ginsler Wealth. Use the link provided or find us on your favourite podcast app.)
PRELUDE:
In my last quarterly letter I discussed the benefits of “doing nothing” (sometimes) as it relates to investing, but suggested that in my next quarterly letter I would discuss the benefits of “doing something”. So here we go…
To Ginsler Wealth’s Clients:
I returned to Algonquin Park in the Fall (following the trip with my wife that I wrote about last quarter)—my regular annual trip with my buddies. Avid readers of these letters (are there any?) would know that we prefer this time of year to others, even though the weather can be a bit unpredictable. Unlike the past few years, this October in Algonquin Park was warm and sunny – although it definitely cooled down during the nights.
At 2am on our last night, I woke up in the tent and nature was calling. When this happens, the goal is typically to jump out of the tent, do what has to be done, and jump right back in quickly. But while I was outside the tent, I noticed that the pitch darkness of bedtime had turned into a bright moonlit night; the temperature was mild; and I did not hear any bears rustling in the woods (phew). Instead of jumping back into the tent quickly…nature actually was calling…so I decided to do something.
I took a camping chair and walked down to the lake and sat there for a while, enjoying the moonlit lake, the solitude and the peace. It was beautiful.
Don’t tell my campmates, but it was the best part of the whole trip for me. All because I decided to do something.
WHAT TO DO NOW?
The last few years have been a boon for equity investors. After a brutal 2022, equity markets, seemingly always now led by the Magnificent Seven, roared ahead in both 2023 and 2024. Trump’s recent victory has continued to propel U.S. “risk” assets higher, as well as Bitcoin, which has soared almost 47% since the day before the U.S. Election (Nov 4)[i]. While there are always many reasons why this equity run and risk assets should fall, we wouldn’t bet against Trump’s ability to boost the U.S. markets and economy, which is clearly his stated goal.
At the same time, central banks – in particular in Canada – have been lowering interest rates after raising them dramatically in 2022 and the first half of 2023.
All the above has led to developed markets (especially the U.S.) valuations reaching all-time highs. For example, the chart below shows that the current S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is 41% higher than its 30-year average.
S&P 500 Index: Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio[ii]
This is especially true when viewed against international and emerging market valuations. For example, the chart to the right shows that the current “international” price-to-earnings ratio is at a 38% discount to the U.S. (S&P 500)—near historic lows and more than two standard deviations below the average.
International: Price-to-Earnings Discount vs. U.S. [iii]
MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. vs. S&P 500, next 12 months
The above has also led to falling income yields on interest sensitive assets, which has especially impacted our ability to find new structured notes[iv] at attractive income levels.
So in the latter half of 2024 (and continuing into 2025) we decided to “do something”.
LOOK ABROAD
Over the past quarter, after many months of due diligence, we have made small allocations[v] to an emerging markets equity fund. Our rationale for doing so is as follows:
| Emerging markets are large and significant – representing 60% of global GDP.[vi]
| Emerging markets are growing – growing at >2x developed economies.[vii]
| Emerging markets are an opportunity for investors – with forecasted earnings per share growth of 4x developed markets going forward[viii], valuations relative to the U.S. at 50-year lows (see chart below), and of course, diversification benefits.
Emerging Markets Equities vs. U.S. Equities[ix]
Relative Price (USD terms)
While emerging markets investing can be more volatile or risky, the particular fund chosen mitigates some of these risks by pursuing a value investment approach and generally overweights the utilities and infrastructure sectors in the fund, providing more stability of cash flows, a regulatory framework, and higher dividend yields (see the section below on income). It also generally underweights technology and financial services investments, which carry higher volatility and valuations in the former, and higher leverage in the latter.
To learn more about emerging market equities, you can listen to Episode 46 of The Unlimited Podcast featuring my interview with Rohit Khuller, Lead Portfolio Manager of the Emerging Markets Equity fund at Letko Brosseau in Montreal.
As we enter 2025, we are continuing our work to identify other international equity opportunities to round out our equity offerings in client portfolios.
THE SEARCH FOR INCOME
On the “income” side, during 2024 we introduced a new multi-family real estate fund to our lineup, which in addition to historically strong growth from operations, pays a 5% distribution that comes in the form of “return of capital” – meaning it is not taxable when received[x]. This is equivalent to earning >10% on a regular income-generating investment (for investors in the highest tax bracket).
As a side note, during our due diligence on the above fund, we highlighted concerns regarding their redemption terms and respectfully conveyed that we could not proceed with an investment unless adjustments were made. We were very pleased that this multi-billion-dollar fund acknowledged our feedback and agreed to modify its terms to address our concerns – for the benefit of not just Ginsler Wealth clients, but also all other investors.[xi]
Most recently, during the past quarter, we added an Options Income strategy (in the Alternative asset class), which aims to generate a high yield—currently around 11%. This yield has also (historically) been highly tax efficient, with distributions often treated as a mixture of capital gains and return of capital, rather than more highly-taxed interest or dividend income.[xii]
This has also been accompanied by increasing allocations to Canadian-dividend-oriented equity strategies throughout the middle and latter half of 2024 – which have received renewed interest (no pun intended) as interest rates have been lowered.
Speaking of dividends and emerging markets, as mentioned in the section above, international equities are currently offering a dividend yield more than 2x higher than U.S. equities (see chart to the right), with the emerging markets strategy we use offering a current dividend yield almost 3x higher.
International: Difference in Dividend Yields vs. U.S.[xiii]
MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. minus S&P 500, next 12 months
We continue to seek attractive, tax-efficient income-oriented strategies for our clients.
WHAT WE’RE DOING AT GINSLER WEALTH
We are also doing something(s) at Ginsler Wealth: This past year has been one of growth. This has been especially true for larger clients taking advantage of our full “family office”, or “Personal CFO” services. As a result, during this past quarter, we welcomed two new investment professionals to our investment team who collectively hold two Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designations, one Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation, one Masters of Finance degree and one Licensed Portfolio Manager registration.
Among other things, we are also busy working on more robust Ginsler Wealth reporting, and a new client portal and mobile app. Stay tuned for invites rolling out over the course of the next few months.
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Wishing everyone a Happy New Year. I hope you had a chance to do nothing over the holidays; and I hope the New Year brings us all the opportunity to do something great in 2025. We’re certainly working on it!
Thank you for your continued trust, support and confidence. We are available 24/7 should you need us.
Sincerely,
Brian Ginsler
President & CEO
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[i] On November 4, 2024, Yahoo! Finance shows a Bitcoin “closing” price of $69,359.56 USD (even though there is no “closing” price of Bitcoin since it trades 24/7). On January 6, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at a price of $101,904 USD.
[ii] FactSet, FRB, Refinitiv Datastream, Robert Shiller, Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price-to-earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months as provided by IBES since March 1994 and by FactSet since January 2022. Average P/E and standard deviations are calculated using 30 years of history. Shiller’s P/E uses trailing 10-years of inflation-adjusted earnings as reported by companies. Dividend yield is calculated as the next 12-months consensus dividend divided by most recent price. Price-to-book ratio is the price divided by book value per share. Price-to-cash flow is price divided by NTM cash flow. EY minus Baa yield is the forward earnings yield (consensus analyst estimates of EPS over the next 12 months divided by price) minus the Bloomberg US corporate Baa yield since December 2008 and interpolated using the Moody’s Baa seasoned corporate bond yield for values beforehand. Std. dev. over-/under-valued is calculated using the average and standard deviation over 30 years for each measure. *Averages and standard deviations for dividend yield and P/CF are since November 1995 due to data availability. J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2024.
[iii] FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2024.
[iv] To get a refresher on structured notes, you can read Ginsler Wealth’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Client Letter – The Coby Edition.
[v] Where appropriate based on each specific client’s goals, objectives and risk tolerance.
[vi] IMF as of October 2024. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC
[vii] IMF as of October 2024. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
[viii] Bloomberg: 2023-2025 total earnings per share growth estimates of the MXWO (MSCI World) and MXEF (MSCI EM) index. Provided by Letko Brosseau. 2024.
[ix] Bank of America Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg, Global Financial Data. Bank of America Global Research. The Flow Show. Catch Me If You Can. November 30, 2023.
[x] A return of capital (ROC) occurs when an investor receives a portion of their original investment back, rather than income or profit. From a tax perspective, ROC is typically not taxable when received but reduces the investor’s cost basis in the investment, meaning at the time of selling the investment, the ultimate taxable capital gain will be higher. If the cost basis is reduced to zero, further ROC distributions may be taxed as capital gains.
[xi] For investors purchasing the same class of units as Ginsler Wealth clients.
[xii] Over the past 5 calendar years, the mix has averaged 59% return of capital, 36% capital gains, and 5% interest/dividends – source is direct from the fund company. Contact GW for further details.
[xiii] FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of November 31, 2024.