(An audio version of this letter can now be found as Episode 14 of The Unlimited Podcast by Ginsler Wealth. Use the link provided or find us on your favourite podcast app.)
To Ginsler Wealth’s Clients:
Earlier this past quarter, I went on my annual Fall canoe trip in Algonquin Park. There is a core crew of us that have been doing this together for 25+ years. Over the years we have moved the trip from June (too many mosquitos and rain), to July/August (too busy/too many people), to late September/October when the park is much quieter, the bugs are all gone, the air is crisp, and the leaves are changing colours on the trees. It is a beautiful time for a canoe trip…unless the weather doesn’t cooperate.
While you may recall this past October being an unseasonably warm month, leading up to our trip the Algonquin weather was looking very uncertain. But we are quite experienced, we have all the gear, and we know our roles and routines.
When we arrived at the Portage Store on Canoe Lake for departure, we were already layered up in our clothes. It’s always easy to remove layers while on the lake; not so easy to add. It’s critical to be able to adapt and adjust quickly.
The second we started paddling away from the dock, the rain started.
When we arrived on our final lake of the day, we explored a number of potential campsites before choosing the one we thought was laid out best, had a shielded campfire area, and good position on the lake.
Once the winning campsite was chosen, we began our setup process immediately. The tent was put up, including a protective extra tarp (angled “just so”). Another tarp was hung to create a covered area for sitting and to protect wood and supplies, should the inclement weather continue.
Then the hunt began. We spent a few hours in the woods searching for, chopping, and sawing firewood in 3 sizes: smallish kindling, medium twigs and branches for building the fire up, and larger logs for sustaining. You can never have too much wood on a canoe trip. It goes much faster than you think, especially in bad weather when you might not have a chance for a second search.
My friend Jeff is responsible for the fires throughout the trip. He completely rebuilt the firepit, creating a protective wall of rocks. I am the head chef. And Todd is the overall organizer and equipment supplier.
All our experience, preparation and setup proved critical this trip. We experienced rain, torrential wind, hail, and snow (yes!). And luckily a few nice moments of sunshine. Being experienced and prepared enabled us to enjoy a trip that for most novice or amateur canoe trippers would likely have been a disaster. The good news is that the weather next year has to be better than what we experienced this past year!
PREPARING FOR 2023
Why am I telling you the story of my canoe trip in my year-end letter?
We have just experienced a very difficult year from an economic and investment standpoint. The war in Ukraine continues. Equity and bond markets (typically the only asset classes in most non-Ginsler Wealth portfolios) experienced significant losses. Central banks, especially in the U.S. and Canada, have raised interest rates at a higher and faster pace than perhaps any time in history in an effort to curb inflation, and it doesn’t appear that they are done yet. The effect of this will likely be a recession in 2023 (if there isn’t one already hiding in plain site).
As we “check the weather” for 2023, it is looking like it will be inclement. To navigate 2023, we believe you need: experience, the right investment toolkit, and an ability to assess your investment options and make sound decisions. None of us know exactly what investment and economic weather we are going to experience. So, in our view, most investors[1] should be entering 2023 with an “All-Weather” portfolio – a portfolio that can provide a reasonable level of downside protection, some income along the way (like firewood, you can never have too much income), and the opportunity for growth and gains if and when the sun comes out.
My last quarterly letter focused on opportunities we see in this environment. Those views haven’t changed, and we are implementing such in your Ginsler Wealth portfolios. GW client portfolios are typically allocated across a variety of asset classes – not just stocks and bonds – and we believe have the All-Weather characteristics highlighted above.
We are layered up and have raised the tarp over your portfolios for whatever weather 2023 brings. Whether it rains or shines, Ginsler Wealth has you covered.[2]
Wishing you unlimited health, happiness, and prosperity in 2023.
Thank you for your trust, support, and confidence. We are available 24/7 should you need us.
Sincerely,
Brian Ginsler
President & CEO
[1] All investors, and Ginsler Wealth clients, have different investment goals, objectives, time horizons, and risk tolerances. As such any investment recommendations or statements made herein may not be appropriate for all investors and/or clients.
[2] Investing involves material risk and uncertainties and nothing herein should be considered a promise or guarantee of investment results.
