(An audio version of this letter can now be found as Episode 56 of The Unlimited Podcast by Ginsler Wealth. Use the link provided or find us on your favourite podcast app: Apple Podcasts / Spotify)
The waiting is the hardest part
Every day you see one more card
You take it on faith, you take it to the heart
But the waiting is the hardest part
–The Waiting, Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers
To Ginsler Wealth’s Clients:
In mid-2018, while I was at a previous investment firm, I met with a prospective client referred by one of my favourite accountants. For context, the markets—using the U.S. S&P 500 as a proxy for equities—had staged a dramatic recovery since the 2009 lows following the Global Financial Crisis that spanned from late 2007 through 2009. From its folkloric low of 666.79 in March 2009, the index had climbed to around 2,700 by mid-2018—an increase of more than 300%, or over 16% annualized (and that excludes dividends by the way).
After I explained why it was a good time to invest with us, I will never forget his response: “I’m waiting until there is blood in the streets.” – so sure was he that the end was nigh.
I have not been in touch with that prospect since, but I think about him often.
Just a few months after that meeting, the index started to fall, and by December 24, 2018 was down almost 20% from its high (see left chart below), but ended the year down only about 6%. Hardly “blood in the streets”. Barely five months later, the index was back at all-time highs (see right chart below).
The market continued to hit all-time highs through February 2020 when a global pandemic completely shocked the markets. The S&P 500 fell 34% in 23 trading days (see left chart below). Now that was a “blood in the streets” moment. But was he bold enough to dive in when we were all locked in our houses worrying how we were going to get our next roll of toilet paper? I doubt it. Three days later, the market was up 18% and – yet again – barely 5 months later (still in the depths of COVID), the markets hit another all-time high! (see right chart below)
You get the point. Since then, we have seen more market drama: a tough 2022 with a gradual 25% decline, followed by a recovery to new all-time highs in late 2023. Just this past quarter, we experienced the Trump-induced market shock, when the S&P 500 fell 18% in a few days, and culminated with the U.S. dropping 30,000-pound bombs on Iran. This led to – you guessed it – the market reaching yet another all-time high on June 30.
The island of doubt, it’s like the taste of medicine
Working by hindsight, got the message from the oxygen
Making a list, find the cost of opportunity
Doing it right, facts are useful in emergencies
I’m still waiting… (repeat 13x…fade out)
–Crosseyed and Painless, Talking Heads
When we zoom out on this story, it becomes clear: while waiting for “blood in the streets,” the market rose 156% (including dividends)—delivering 14.4% per year (see chart below). By waiting for the perfect entry point, he missed a powerful eight years of compounding.
Tom Petty was right…the waiting is the hardest part.
YOU DON’T NEED MORE TIME. YOU JUST NEED TO INVEST.
If you’ve been reading my letters, this theme should sound familiar. I touched on it in my last quarterly letter (Warren Buffett Edition) where I described markets climbing the ever-present “Wall of Worry.” So why revisit it again, just three months later?
Because this quarter’s letter is a reminder: our investment approach—and what we do for you every day—is designed to get capital working quickly and to stay invested through inevitable market turbulence. Your Ginsler Wealth portfolios aren’t just invested in the market—they’re built across multiple geographies (Canada, U.S., international, emerging markets), a variety of investment styles (value, growth, concentrated, and more), and a broad range of asset classes (fixed income, alternatives, real estate, private equity, venture capital, etc.).[i]
While keeping your portfolios essentially fully invested, we tactically shift to asset classes and/or strategies that we believe have the opportunity to protect capital or perform strongly (often, both!) based on the prevailing market environment.
During the past quarter, we added a unique quantitative-based fixed income strategy to our roster, with a strong historical track record of accomplishing both goals mentioned above.[ii] We have also committed to investing in the latest venture fund from one of the world’s best[iii] AI-focused venture capital investors (more on AI later).
As my former canoe instructor—now world-renowned leadership and marketing guru—Seth Godin says:
You don’t need more time. You just need to decide.
For investors who may be…still waiting, I would adapt that to: You don’t need more time. You just need to invest.
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WHAT YOU’VE BEEN WAITING FOR…HOUSEKEEPING ITEMS
I usually save the housekeeping items for the end of these letters—but this quarter, a few updates are important enough that I didn’t want to keep you waiting.
Ginsler.ai
While others are just realizing the power of AI, we’ve been focused on it for years. For a refresher, I recommend my January 2023 interview with Jordan Jacobs, Founder & Managing Partner at Radical Ventures. We believe AI is not just another trend—it’s likely the most transformative force of our lifetimes.
This summer, The Unlimited Podcast will feature a series of interviews with an AI theme, including my recent interview with entrepreneur Michael Hyatt, and a follow-up interview with Jordan 2.5 years after the original. You don’t want to miss these.
At Ginsler Wealth, we’re already using AI in our day-to-day operations. In my view, if a business is still waiting to engage with AI, they’re already behind. And to take it a step further: I’ve personally spent considerable time building and training a conversational AI version of myself—complete with memory of everything we’ve published since Day 1. We call it (me?) Ginsler.ai. Try it out—it’s a quick way to tap into how we think and what we do—no scrolling required.
Client Portal is Live
Our Ginsler Wealth client portal, including mobile app, is now being rolled out to clients in waves. If you have not already received your activation email, please look out for it in the next week or so. Going forward, we will deliver your monthly and quarterly reports via this secure portal.
Family Office Associate Wanted
As our firm continues to grow, we are looking to add a key team member: a Family Office Associate to work with our clients and provide holistic wealth, financial, planning and investment services.
The ideal candidate will likely have an accounting (CPA) or financial planning (CFP) designation. Most importantly, we need someone with a huge passion for helping families with their financial affairs. If that passion is there – I can train them in the “Ginsler Wealth Way”. We have had some great interest but I am still searching for the best fit. So I’m enlisting your help. Full details of the opportunity can be found here. I would really appreciate you sharing with your own networks. I may be biased, but I genuinely believe there’s no better place to build a meaningful career—and make a real difference—than here at Ginsler Wealth.
Reminder: Private X Account for Clients
Earlier in 2024, we launched @ginslerwealthx, a private X (formerly Twitter) account exclusively for clients and close friends of the firm.
While we remain active on public social media platforms like LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook, our public X account, and The Unlimited Podcast, this private channel lets us share more candid thoughts, ideas, and firm updates—without overloading your inbox. If you’re not yet following…what are you waiting for? Request access and we’ll let you in (Note: followers can see one another).
Think of it as the only thing “limited” about your Ginsler Wealth experience.
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With all this emphasis on action, you might think that we’ve tossed patience aside. But actually, in investing, patience is what matters most, after you act. More on that in a future letter.
Speaking of patience, now that Canada Day has passed, the long wait for the Canadian summer is over. Wishing you a wonderful summer filled with life’s most important investments: your family, your friends, and experiences that create lasting memories. Those definitely can’t wait!
Thank you for your continued trust, support, and confidence. The AI hasn’t replaced the real humans at Ginsler Wealth (yet); we are still available 24/7 should you need us.
Sincerely,
Brian Ginsler
President & CEO
[i] Reminder that every client has different risk tolerances, goals, objectives, time horizons, etc. and each portfolio at Ginsler Wealth is tailored for each individual client’s circumstances.
[ii] Past performance may not be indicative of future performance.
[iii] Given the large investment minimum and high risk associated with early-stage venture capital, this opportunity is only appropriate for certain clients. The claim of “one of the world’s best” is based on comparable return histories prepared by Cambridge Associates and shared with Ginsler Wealth by the manager, specific details of which are kept in Ginsler Wealth’s files on a confidential basis due to a non-disclosure agreement in place.
